Steve Sloboda

So there’s this guy named John R. Talbott.  He seems like a pretty smart dude.  His bio says he’s a bestselling author and former Goldman Sachs Investment Banker.  He wrote a book in 2006 called “Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble”.  That book basically said the housing market was gonna crash and it was in your best interest to get your real estate sold before it lost serious value.  As we know now, he was right.

Anyway, now the guy has seriously changed his tune.  Recently he penned an article that was featured on the Huffington Post entitled “Homes – Buy Now!”.  The article got me thinking…  I know, crazy right?  My peeps are always asking how the real estate market is flowing and what the latest trends are showing.  This seems as good a time as any to share the opinion of a noted expert.  Take a look and let me know your thoughts…  If it gets you jacked up, let me know and we’ll go find a place that can make you some money short term or long…

Enjoy- SS

I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt. And this from the author of The Coming Crash in the Housing Market published in 2003 and my 2006 book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble. Let me explain why.

Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During Bubble
Home prices are off anywhere from 10% to more than 60% in cities across the country. There is no reason to believe that prices were “fair” during the bubble as we have seen they were largely caused by loose and aggressive lending by banks and non-banks. But, it is always better to buy at a discount rather than at a historical peak, and these seem like awfully big discounts. And by my calculations, in most cities across the country, real prices adjusted for inflation have just about come into line with where prices were in 1997, before all this crazy bank lending started, so there should be little additional downside risk by buying today. There are still some neighborhoods across the country that have not seen very dramatic declines in price, many of them very wealthy and expensive enclaves, but given the distribution of incomes lately heavily weighed toward the wealthy, these areas may never see a really large home price decline.

Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs
Homes in many cities across the country are now selling for as little as $60 to $70 a square foot. Depending on the quality of construction and the underlying land value, this represents a 50% to 65% discount to the costs you would incur if you tried to build a similar home today in these cities. While there is no guarantee that there will be a strong rental market in the short run, in the long run it just seems to make sense to buy if you can acquire assets at half or less of the cost of building them.

Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents
During the peak years of the housing bubble, entire cities like San Diego were seeing their homes priced on average at 11 times the area’s median family income. Such prices financed primarily with debt are by definition unsustainable. Now, because banks have pulled back on their lending formulas, homes in many cities are changing hands at three to four times average family incomes. Similarly, at the peak, houses traded at such large multiples of possible rents that it made the projects uneconomic from the start. Now, with homes trading at more reasonable multiples of rents, houses and condos can be purchased that are immediately cash flow positive in year one and enjoy all the upside of any appreciation that will occur as inflation returns.

Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms
We still talk about home prices in dollar terms, which is silly because the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power relative to a more stable asset like gold over the last fifty years. If instead of pricing houses in dollars, we look and see what a home would cost in ounces of gold, we see that houses today are a real bargain. As a matter of fact, this graph shows that average homes, measured in the number of gold ounces it would take to buy them are now trading at forty year historical lows.

You might argue that this is because gold is priced highly today. I would argue that gold’s purchasing power has changed very little over time, it is the dollar that is depreciating and thus giving the appearance that the price of gold is rising. Actually, gold is quite stable relative to other assets and commodities and it is the dollar that is highly volatile and declining in value due to the US funding its deficits by printing dollars.

The Real Bubble – US Treasuries and Future Inflation
The real bubble out there is longer US Treasuries and 30-year fixed rate mortgages for homebuyers. With US debt equal to its GDP and equal to more than four times our government’s total tax revenues and with annual deficits of $1.3 trillion and growing, it is amazing to me that people will lend to the US for thirty years for less than 3.0% a year. Even more amazing is that individual homeowners can borrow at 4.0% (around 3% after tax) for thirty years on a fixed rate basis, some 300 basis points better than Italy which has a lot more people and makes much better shoes. Homes may not appreciate greatly in real terms over the next twenty years, but they don’t have to if inflation comes back, which is the only way the US and Europe are going to get out from under the huge debts on their countries and their banks. You may not make a lot in real terms on the house, but if inflation returns, you could make a killing on your investment as your thirty year debt becomes worth less and less in real terms. Run the numbers, but if inflation and interest rates go back to say, 7% to 8%, you could easily make eight to ten times your equity investment on the house because you locked in your borrowing costs and home appreciations historically have always correlated well with unanticipated inflation.

So, run, do not walk to your neighborhood banker and either finance a new home purchase or take out the maximum amount of money he or she will lend you on a home equity loan and buy hard assets, not financial securities, with the money. When inflation comes roaring back the only perfect hedge is to be a borrower, not a lender or investor. Shakespeare said “Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” but they didn’t have huge government deficits and the risk of future inflation back in the Bard’s time.
John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a best selling author and economic consultant to families. You can read more about his books, the accuracy of his predictions and his family consulting activities at www.stopthelying.com.

I can get you a Texas ranch for cheap.

No cookie cutters here...

Congratulations to Shauna Fossum and her group that revived the failed Wheelz Skating Rink and turned it into Rollin’ 253!  It’s refreshing to see people with passion refusing to let something they love go away!  If you’re in the area, please make sure to support this local business.

Located at 2101 Mildred Street in Fircrest.

Check out their website at rollin253.com

For more information and to learn more about how this group made it all come together.  Check out this article from the Tacoma News Tribune.

Feel the wind in your face...

Yes, he does...

Are you dead or near death?  Are you in Alabama?  Do you honor the life and memory of your former football coach more than you do that of your own flesh and blood?  Well, have I got the deal for you!  For a modest sum, you can spend eternity, having maggots eat at your rotting corpse, right along side the Bear himself! Five plots have opened up in Elmwood cemetery right next to the legendary Alabama coach and can be had for only $2,200 a pop.  A small price to pay to have you and your family laid to rest at the Bear’s right hand, if it’s still attached after all these years, of course.

Follow the link here…

http://goo.gl/UViKO

Like they always say…Real estate is all about location, location, location…

Guessing this guy has already bought one...

The New Year provides a great opportunity to refresh, improve, and
advance.  Windermere took this sentiment to heart with the launch
of its newly updated website, Windermere.com.  Now it’s easier than
ever to search for homes, explore new neighborhoods, and learn
about the buying and selling process.  Whether you’re a veteran user
or a new visitor, I invite you to check out the new and improved
tools and features Windermere.com has to offer.

■ Updated design with easy navigation
■ Fewer clicks to valuable information and listings
■ More advanced search options
■ myWindermere tools including saved searches, find
an agent, track and share favorite listings
■ Listing detail pages with in-depth MLS data and
research tools, such as listing history, days on market,
and community details
■ Discover Your Neighborhood features to find information
on local schools, amenities and home sales
■ Share listings and content via email, Facebook, and Twitter
■ Expanded home buyer and seller tips with integrated blog

If you have questions about the website, or any other real estate
related needs, please don’t hesitate to contact me. I’m here to help!

This guy hasn't seen the new windermere.com yet!

She will soon find out about stevesloboda.com!

See how happy stevesloboda.com can make you?

stevesloboda.com & windermere.com are now cutting edge!

What are your resolutions for 2012?  Do you think it is possible to have your cake, or at least your pasta, and eat it too?  These noodles from Japan might help.  They contain zero calories and zero carbs, but what do you think they taste like?  I’m guessing not very good.  If you try some, let me know.

I hope you have a happy new year.  Please let me know if I can help with anything at all.

Looking forward,

SS

PS:  If you do try these noodles, please wear this awesome hair protector.  You can thank me later…

Always wear protection when enjoying a bowl of noodles

Nice to see some encouraging news as we head out of 2011.  Happy New Year to you all…

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=173eba4d-d62f-4d5d-bd6a-3344b69cd4da

Recently I was approached to join the advisory committee for the ArenaSolution.org group working “behind the scenes” to support a regional effort to bring a world class arena facility, premium concerts, and new professional sports teams (NBA/NHL) to the Puget Sound area.

By assembling a large and diverse coalition willing to publicly state support of these efforts, ArenaSolution.org is demonstrating to political and private business leaders the public’s overwhelming desire to find an arena solution.   This solution must be responsible to the taxpayers and spur economic growth, while bringing a strong sense of pride to the community.

Please let me know if you’d like to join the effort to build a new facility, bring the NBA back, and possibly land an NHL team.  For a list of people already involved please click this link for an info sheet.
(I’m on page 7)  http://goo.gl/3fqFl

Take a look at the Arenasolution.org website here:  http://www.arenasolution.org

Lastly, if you haven’t seen it, please set aside a couple hours and watch this well produced documentary about the events that led to the Sonics departure. 

SS

This house is right across the street from the High School I attended in Lakewood, WA.  It’s always been a curious house with a colorful history.  It was interesting to read this article about the sale.  I added some pictures from the listing.

Woman with an affinity for old homes has purchased the historical  Boatman-Ainsworth House in Lakewood without even coming west to see it in person:

Story From the Tacoma News Tribune

A New Jersey woman with an affinity for old homes has purchased the historical  Boatman-Ainsworth House in Lakewood without even coming west to see it in  person.

Marjorie Thomas-Candau of Medford, N.J., becomes the sixth owner of the  colonial home on 112th Street Southwest across from Clover Park High School.

The sale closed Nov. 4, according to the county auditor’s office, and the  sale price was $280,000.

“It’s very hard to find an old home and one that’s not so expensive you have  to be a millionaire to be able to afford it,” Thomas-Candau said. “That’s  something that I thought was pretty lucky.”

The house is named for its first two owners. Willis Boatman, an early settler  to the area, built it on his 160-acre homestead in the late 1850s. Boatman sold  the property to Capt. John Ainsworth, a founder of the Oregon Steam Navigation  Company, in 1878.

It was listed on the state historic registry in 1974 and the National  Register of Historic Places in 1982. It was one of the first listed on the city  registry of historic properties in 2003.

Thomas-Candau, an occupational therapist, plans to move to the area to be  closer to family and her best friend who lives in Seattle. She enlisted the help  of her daughter, who lives in Tacoma, to find her new home. She gave some  criteria to assist the search, specifically requesting an old home with  character and land.

She wasn’t sold on the house when her daughter first sent pictures. But  continued prodding by her daughter and best friend, who both toured the house,  convinced her the property was the right fit for her.

Thomas-Candau hasn’t yet visited her new home and said she won’t be moving to  Lakewood for at least a year so she has time first to take care of some personal  affairs. She plans to do repairs but said she doesn’t intend to make major  changes to the house or property.

Thomas-Candau grew up in a farmhouse in southern New Jersey, not far from  where she lives now. Her home was built circa 1860 and was Medford’s first free  public school.

The Boatman-Ainsworth House’s previous owners, Craig and Margaret Gunter,  passed the home to their three daughters after Margaret Gunter died last year;  Craig Gunter died in 2005. The daughters, who all live outside Pierce County,  said they made the difficult decision to part with the house their family owned  for 40 years.

“Even talking about it brings tears to my eyes,” one of the daughters,  Jeannie Gunter, told The News Tribune in September. “That home is really  something very, very special.”

So, this is pretty much the coolest picture ever.  You can pan all the way around Husky Stadium just before kickoff of the last game before the remodel.

The GigaPixel FanCam image consists of more than 20 billion pixels, allowing you to zoom in and explore every corner of Husky Stadium. If you were there, be sure to tag yourself in the FanCam to prove it! If not, you can still tag anything
cool you find.

Enjoy the Husky Stadium Farewell Game FanCam, and share it with your friends!

Here’s the fan and stadium tribute video that was played on the big screen.  It was very well done.  I have so many great memories in that Stadium.  Excited for the new and will fondly remember the old!  Go Dawgs!

Movember is a month-long celebration of the mustache.  It was started to highlight men’s health issues – specifically prostate and testicular cancer.  During the month of November, participants grow a mustache and raise funds for charities like the Prostate Cancer Foundation and the Lance Armstrong Foundation. 

Here are the official rules.  Let me know if you spot any participants and have a great Movember!