Kirkland, WA, January 17, 2013 – Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service tallied 64,624 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums during 2012, improving on 2011’s volume by 8,332 transaction for a gain of nearly 15 percent.
Last year’s completed sales included 55,699 single family homes and 8,925 condominiums. Together, these sales were valued at more than $19.9 billion, which compares to the previous year’s total of around $16.7 billion (up nearly 19.6 percent).
Median prices area-wide increased by $10,000 (about 4.3 percent), rising from $235,000 to $245,000, although not all areas reported gains. Mason, Snohomish and King counties reported the healthiest jumps.
Prices on single family homes rose, while condo prices fell. The median price for single family homes that sold last year was $255,000 across the 21 counties, improving on the previous year by 8.5 percent. King County claimed the highest median prices for single family homes ($365,000), while the most affordably priced homes – based on 2012 median prices – were located in Pacific County ($111,000).
Condo prices declined about 2.7 percent, with the area-wide median price falling from $180,000 in 2011 to $175,200 for last year’s sales.
Inventory also shrunk from 2011 levels year as a result of stronger sales and fewer new listings. Over the course of the year, brokers added 10,071 fewer new listings to the Northwest MLS database when compared to 2011 for a drop of 9.9 percent.
In its annual statistical summary report for its 20,000-plus brokers, the multiple listing service examined various indicators of activity. Among the findings:
- Single family homes accounted for about 86 percent of the sales volume as measured by units, and nearly 90 percent of the dollar volume.
- About 40 percent of last year’s sales were for homes in King County.
- About half the homes that sold last year (48.8 percent) had 3 bedrooms, while more than three-fourths of condos (77 percent) had 2 or fewer bedrooms.
- Last year’s sales included 7,710 newly built single family homes and 930 newly built condominiums. Of this new construction component, new condos fetched a higher price ($331,888) than newly built single family homes, which had a median sales price of $299,950.
- Northwest MLS brokers reported 1,254 sales with prices of $1 million or more, including 1,116 single family homes and 138 condominiums. More than half the top-end homes were located in Eastside communities, including Bellevue, Kirkland, Mercer Island and Sammamish.
- The highest priced single family home in the MLS system that sold last year was on Mercer Island (with a selling price of $21.625 million), while the most expensive condo ($4.25 million) was a penthouse in a downtown Seattle high-rise.
- Northwest MLS members reported 93,778 pending sales (mutually accepted offers) during 2012. That marked an increase of about 15.6 percent from 2011 when members logged 81,109 pending sales. (Note: Not all pending sales become closed transactions. Failed home inspections, mortgage loan rejections, low appraisals and contract contingencies are among many factors that cause transactions to be cancelled.)
- The pace of sales as measured by “months supply” (an estimate of how long it would take for all inventory of active listings to sell at the current pace assuming no new inventory is added) showed a system-wide total of 3.15 months, which compares to a figure of 5.02 months for 2011. Based on this barometer, both King and Snohomish counties averaged less than two months of supply during 2012. (Analysts consider a supply of 3-to-6 months to be a balanced market, meaning the market favors neither buyers nor sellers.)
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 20,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.
Are you still with me? If so, Here's the complete report……All 37 pages of it. Read and enjoy! As always, I'm here if you'd like some of this information broken down into details. Don't hesitate to drop me a line….
Here are the schedules for our favorite football teams… Get 'em on your calendar…Football season is HERE!!!
Have you seen Oscar Pistorius run yet? He's the South African double amputee who fought for the right to compete against able bodied athletes. This summer he will be competing for gold in both the 400 meter and 4×400 meter relay.
Seriously….How cool is that?
My Dad lost part of his leg in 1993 and he all he wanted to do was golf again. He worked hard to get there and did eventually achieve that goal! Memory of his struggle is something that inspires me to do better.
I hope you are enjoying the Olympics. My family sure is… I'm here if you need help with anything.
My new obsession with HBO’s “Game of Thrones” made it so I had to share this.
One of Britain’s most historic country mansions has gone on the market for the bargain price of $3.8 million. Not bad considering the British government bought it just eight years ago and spent $6 million dollars renovating it. You’ll have to live without bathrooms though because this palace is missing its ‘throne room.’ The whole story is here.
Just more proof that buyers want updated baths! I hope you’re having a great day – Let me know if you need anything.
Are the longest breaks you take these days stopping for red lights and standing in line at the grocery store? Sometimes I feel like mine are. Why are we so bad at taking breaks, even when one would improve our energy level and our concentration?
Here are some ideas on how to take better ones. I like the “thumb and pinkie brain break.” What is your favorite?
Have a great day! Please let me know if you need anything.
Speaking of Breaks. Here’s a great way to spend four minutes….And put a hop to your step for the rest the day.
Would you live in a dumpster? This one has hardwood floors and stainless steel appliances. No joke!
Here are some other unusual homes. Don’t miss the one in Pullman made from used car parts. Rumor has it the President of WSU is interested. He said it would be an upgrade from campus…Kidding, of course. (Go Dawgs)
Real estate agent members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service are reporting positive gains in activity. Pending sales for February increased more than 27 percent from a year ago, more sellers are listing their homes, and brokers are reporting an uptick in multiple offers.
“Buyers are beginning to realize that we may have seen the bottom of this real estate market,” remarked Frank Wilson, a Pulsobo-based member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. “Waiting to buy may only result in paying a higher interest rate, having fewer houses to choose from, or finding that sellers do not need to give up as much as they have in the past.”
Brokers reported 7,623 pending sales during February, the highest volume since August when there were just nine more mutually accepted offers. Last month’s tally jumped 27.4 percent from 12 months ago, with 20 of the 21 counties in the MLS service area reporting double-digit gains.
Total active Pierce County single-family and condo listings are down 22 percent from a year ago and the number of closed unit sales is up 9.7 percent over 2011 year-to-date.
In Thurston County, there were 205 fewer listings at the end of February and 56 more units in the pending sales category for houses and condominium units.
So there’s this guy named John R. Talbott. He seems like a pretty smart dude. His bio says he’s a bestselling author and former Goldman Sachs Investment Banker. He wrote a book in 2006 called “Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble”. That book basically said the housing market was gonna crash and it was in your best interest to get your real estate sold before it lost serious value. As we know now, he was right.
Anyway, now the guy has seriously changed his tune. Recently he penned an article that was featured on the Huffington Post entitled “Homes – Buy Now!”. The article got me thinking… I know, crazy right? My peeps are always asking how the real estate market is flowing and what the latest trends are showing. This seems as good a time as any to share the opinion of a noted expert. Take a look and let me know your thoughts… If it gets you jacked up, let me know and we’ll go find a place that can make you some money short term or long…
I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt. And this from the author of The Coming Crash in the Housing Market published in 2003 and my 2006 book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble. Let me explain why.
Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During Bubble
Home prices are off anywhere from 10% to more than 60% in cities across the country. There is no reason to believe that prices were “fair” during the bubble as we have seen they were largely caused by loose and aggressive lending by banks and non-banks. But, it is always better to buy at a discount rather than at a historical peak, and these seem like awfully big discounts. And by my calculations, in most cities across the country, real prices adjusted for inflation have just about come into line with where prices were in 1997, before all this crazy bank lending started, so there should be little additional downside risk by buying today. There are still some neighborhoods across the country that have not seen very dramatic declines in price, many of them very wealthy and expensive enclaves, but given the distribution of incomes lately heavily weighed toward the wealthy, these areas may never see a really large home price decline.
Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs
Homes in many cities across the country are now selling for as little as $60 to $70 a square foot. Depending on the quality of construction and the underlying land value, this represents a 50% to 65% discount to the costs you would incur if you tried to build a similar home today in these cities. While there is no guarantee that there will be a strong rental market in the short run, in the long run it just seems to make sense to buy if you can acquire assets at half or less of the cost of building them.
Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents
During the peak years of the housing bubble, entire cities like San Diego were seeing their homes priced on average at 11 times the area’s median family income. Such prices financed primarily with debt are by definition unsustainable. Now, because banks have pulled back on their lending formulas, homes in many cities are changing hands at three to four times average family incomes. Similarly, at the peak, houses traded at such large multiples of possible rents that it made the projects uneconomic from the start. Now, with homes trading at more reasonable multiples of rents, houses and condos can be purchased that are immediately cash flow positive in year one and enjoy all the upside of any appreciation that will occur as inflation returns.
Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms
We still talk about home prices in dollar terms, which is silly because the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power relative to a more stable asset like gold over the last fifty years. If instead of pricing houses in dollars, we look and see what a home would cost in ounces of gold, we see that houses today are a real bargain. As a matter of fact, this graph shows that average homes, measured in the number of gold ounces it would take to buy them are now trading at forty year historical lows.
You might argue that this is because gold is priced highly today. I would argue that gold’s purchasing power has changed very little over time, it is the dollar that is depreciating and thus giving the appearance that the price of gold is rising. Actually, gold is quite stable relative to other assets and commodities and it is the dollar that is highly volatile and declining in value due to the US funding its deficits by printing dollars.
The Real Bubble – US Treasuries and Future Inflation
The real bubble out there is longer US Treasuries and 30-year fixed rate mortgages for homebuyers. With US debt equal to its GDP and equal to more than four times our government’s total tax revenues and with annual deficits of $1.3 trillion and growing, it is amazing to me that people will lend to the US for thirty years for less than 3.0% a year. Even more amazing is that individual homeowners can borrow at 4.0% (around 3% after tax) for thirty years on a fixed rate basis, some 300 basis points better than Italy which has a lot more people and makes much better shoes. Homes may not appreciate greatly in real terms over the next twenty years, but they don’t have to if inflation comes back, which is the only way the US and Europe are going to get out from under the huge debts on their countries and their banks. You may not make a lot in real terms on the house, but if inflation returns, you could make a killing on your investment as your thirty year debt becomes worth less and less in real terms. Run the numbers, but if inflation and interest rates go back to say, 7% to 8%, you could easily make eight to ten times your equity investment on the house because you locked in your borrowing costs and home appreciations historically have always correlated well with unanticipated inflation.
So, run, do not walk to your neighborhood banker and either finance a new home purchase or take out the maximum amount of money he or she will lend you on a home equity loan and buy hard assets, not financial securities, with the money. When inflation comes roaring back the only perfect hedge is to be a borrower, not a lender or investor. Shakespeare said “Neither a borrower nor a lender be,” but they didn’t have huge government deficits and the risk of future inflation back in the Bard’s time.
John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a best selling author and economic consultant to families. You can read more about his books, the accuracy of his predictions and his family consulting activities at www.stopthelying.com.
Congratulations to Shauna Fossum and her group that revived the failed Wheelz Skating Rink and turned it into Rollin’ 253! It’s refreshing to see people with passion refusing to let something they love go away! If you’re in the area, please make sure to support this local business.
Located at 2101 Mildred Street in Fircrest.
Check out their website at rollin253.com
For more information and to learn more about how this group made it all come together. Check out this article from the Tacoma News Tribune.
The New Year provides a great opportunity to refresh, improve, and
advance. Windermere took this sentiment to heart with the launch
of its newly updated website, Windermere.com. Now it’s easier than
ever to search for homes, explore new neighborhoods, and learn
about the buying and selling process. Whether you’re a veteran user
or a new visitor, I invite you to check out the new and improved
tools and features Windermere.com has to offer.
■ Updated design with easy navigation
■ Fewer clicks to valuable information and listings
■ More advanced search options
■ myWindermere tools including saved searches, find
an agent, track and share favorite listings
■ Listing detail pages with in-depth MLS data and
research tools, such as listing history, days on market,
and community details
■ Discover Your Neighborhood features to find information
on local schools, amenities and home sales
■ Share listings and content via email, Facebook, and Twitter
■ Expanded home buyer and seller tips with integrated blog
If you have questions about the website, or any other real estate
related needs, please don’t hesitate to contact me. I’m here to help!